Received

Details
Category: Received
Hits: 74

Consumers are feeling uneasy following a surprise interest rate hike and a federal budget that left stretched households a little disappointed.

A confidence index, compiled each month by Westpac and the Melbourne Institute, has revealed a 7.9 per cent decline to 79 points in May from 85.8 in April.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the index had almost fallen back to the "dismal levels" seen in March, when the index recorded its lowest monthly reading since the pandemic kicked off in 2020.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's largely unexpected 25 basis points interest rate hike on May 2 and the federal budget on May 9 were the two key factors impacting the index.

While not necessarily damning of the budget, the index was a reflection of the limitations on the government to hand out more cost of living relief at a time of high inflation, Westpac economist Bill Evans said.

"The sub-group detail highlights both sides of this tension with big post-budget sentiment declines for those most dependent on cost-of-living relief (low-income households, the unemployed and some renters) but also a big decline in the group that has most at stake around inflation - households with a mortgage," Mr Evans added.

Consumer surveys also tend to dip before and after budgets, he noted.

The May rate hike to 3.85 per cent also rattled consumers, with nearly 70 per cent now expecting more rises and 40 per cent tipping another one percentage point worth of hikes or more.

"Consumers are right to heed the RBA governor's explicit warning that 'some further tightening of monetary policy may be required' but the extent of these fears seems excessive," Mr Evans said.

Despite high inflation and interest rates weighing on consumer sentiment in May, the survey highlighted the resilience of the labour market and improving confidence in the housing market.

Following a few months of better dwelling values, far more survey respondents now expect house prices to lift, with optimists outnumbering pessimists by four to one.

Meanwhile, a weekly index of consumer confidence compiled by ANZ and Roy Morgan was also down in the wake of the budget, although the prospect of a surplus may have left participants feeling more upbeat about the health of the economy.

The gauge fell 1.8 points to 75.9, marking the 11th week in a row for a reading below 80 points.

While consumers remain lukewarm on the inflation and debt-constrained federal budget, the Labor government's efforts to address fiscal issues has secured its triple-A credit rating assigned by Fitch Ratings.

The agency ticked off the federal government's decision to bank most of the revenue gains from strong commodity prices and a robust labour market.

Early steps to improve structural budget pressures by reforming the NDIS and bringing in extra revenue were also noted, although the agency said more work was needed.

"Even so, longer-term pressure remains in the absence of additional structural reforms," Fitch said in a statement on Tuesday.

Also on Tuesday, the central bank will release the minutes from the May board meeting on monetary policy.

© AAP 2023

Details
Category: Received
Hits: 78

The chance of a budget surplus may have fed into improved optimism about the future health of the Australian economy.

Consumer confidence as measured by ANZ and Roy Morgan every week remains downcast, with the overall index sinking to its lowest point since the early phase of the pandemic.

But participants were feeling more upbeat about "future economic conditions", with the subindex lifting 2.6 points.

ANZ senior economist Adelaide Timbrell said they may have been influenced by the announcement of a federal budget surplus last week.

However households are clearly feeling financially stretched due to higher interest rates and still-elevated inflation, with a 5.4-point dip in "current financial conditions" and a 4.6-point fall in "future financial conditions" dragging the overall index down.

The gauge fell 1.8 points to 75.9, which was the 11th week in a row of a below-80 reading.

"Among the housing cohorts, confidence fell for those renting (-4.1) and those paying off their homes (-2.2), while it rose for those who own their homes outright (+2.0)," Ms Timbrell wrote in the report.

Also on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank will release the minutes from the May board meeting where the board opted to lift interest rates by another 25 basis points.

The increase threw many experts who expected the RBA board to keep the cash rate on hold following a pause in April and weakening inflation data for the March quarter.

The increase followed 10 hikes in a row starting from May last year as the central bank aims to tighten the screws on red-hot inflation.

Governor Philip Lowe has already spoken publicly since the May decision where he stressed the importance of returning inflation to target reasonably quickly.

He also said the board responded to signs of a tight labour market, persistent service inflation and changing asset prices by pulling the trigger on another hike.

Further rate increases will be highly data-dependent, with the bank set to digest new wage and jobs data this week.

© AAP 2023

Details
Category: Received
Hits: 69

St George Illawarra have sacked head coach Anthony Griffin, pulling the pin on the veteran mentor and not offering him the chance to coach out the year.

Griffin was told by Dragons officials on Tuesday morning his time was up, paying the price for a six-match losing streak.

Ryan Carr will take over in the interim, with the Dragons assistant having previously served as an attacking coach at Parramatta.

Jason Ryles remains the primary target to take over as coach next year, with fellow former Dragon Ben Hornby another option.

Off-contract at the end of this year, Griffin had always been long odds to retain his job for 2024 after the board told him in March they were weighing up their options.

But ultimately, the run of poor performances meant he would not see out the final years of his deal.

"These decisions are never taken lightly and on behalf of the club I want to thank Anthony for all his hard work during his time at the Dragons," CEO Ryan Webb said.

"Unfortunately our performances over the first 10 games of this season have not met the club's expectations so it was decided he should finish up his duties this week."

Griffin arrived for work at the Dragons headquarters at Wollongong early on Tuesday, but drove out of the car park shortly after told of his fate.

Griffin has endured a turbulent two-and-a-half years at the helm.

The club won 22 of 57 games under him and failed to make the finals in any season, while several players complained of communication issues with the coach.

Charged with developing the club's juniors on his arrival, Griffin regularly brought them in and out of first grade and had Tyrell Sloan and Jayden Sullivan request releases at the end of last year.

Both eventually stayed, but it was Griffin's decision to bench halfback Sullivan for the majority of Saturday night's 42-22 loss to North Queensland that raised eyebrows.

Dragons players fronted media before Griffin's exit was confirmed on Tuesday and said they felt for the coach.

"This is someone's livelihood. It's their job, their livelihood," forward Jack de Belin said.

"It is sad to see. It's very sad, when anyone loses their job regardless of what field or expertise they're in. I have a lot of sympathy in that sense.

"A lot of that is on us players. I have a lot of guilt in the sense that I could have done more and probably helped out. It is pretty sad."

De Belin also said he could understand fan fury at the club, with bosses set to meet with members on Tuesday night.

"Dragons fans are very passionate, loud supporters and we haven't given them the results they deserve," de Belin said.

"It'd be very frustrating to be a Dragons supporter, no doubt.

"Looking to the future. We've obviously got to get some results happening and just as an overall build the club the way it should be built."

In order to land Ryles, the Dragons will need to convince the club's former prop to leave his job as Sydney Roosters assistant a year early and they are a more enticing option than following Craig Bellamy at Melbourne in 2025.

© AAP 2023

Details
Category: Received
Hits: 66

The minutes from the Reserve Bank board meeting should offer some more context behind the last interest rate hike.

The May interest rate increase threw many experts who expected the RBA board to keep the cash rate on hold following a pause in April and weakening inflation data for the March quarter.

The 25 basis point increase followed 10 hikes in a row starting from May last year as the central bank aims to tighten the screws on red-hot inflation.

Governor Philip Lowe has already spoken publicly since the May decision where he stressed the importance of returning inflation to target reasonably quickly.

He also said the board responded to signs of a tight labour market, persistent service inflation and changing asset prices by pulling the trigger on another hike.

Further rate increases will be highly data-dependent, with the bank set to digest new wage and jobs data this week.

The May consumer sentiment index from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute should also shed some light on public reaction to the latest lift in interest rates as well as the federal budget.

Also due on Tuesday is overseas arrivals and departures data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

© AAP 2023