Received

Payroll jobs have picked up 0.5 per cent through to mid-May, with the uptick possibly influenced by a recovery after sinking over the Easter and school holiday period.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics indicator of movement in the jobs market, which is not seasonally adjusted, followed a similar pattern last year.

"It was slightly weaker than last year, at which time there was still some recovery from the COVID-19 Omicron-related impacts in early 2022," ABS head of labour statistics Bjorn Jarvis said.

Ten of the 19 industries tracked by the indicator rose, with education and training lifting the most as students returned to their studies.

New trade data also released by the bureau on Thursday showed Australia's trade surplus dipping to $11.1 billion in April from $14.8 billion in March.

Meanwhile, in the latest edition of Deloitte Access Economics' retail forecast report, partner at the firm David Rumbens warned of a broader "consumer recession" at some point this year.

He said Australia was already experiencing a retail recession - two quarters in a row of declining spending in inflation-controlled terms - and could soon see a similar pullback in services as well as goods.

"High inflation and rising interest rates have eroded the purchasing power of consumers and, in response, consumer sentiment is now at historically pessimistic levels," he said.

Real retail turnover has recorded a 0.6 per cent fall in the March 2023 quarter, hot on the heels of a 0.3 per cent fall in the December quarter.

Mr Rumbens said it was undeniably a grim time for retailers but there were some silver linings on the horizon, including the expected influx of migrants.

About 400,000 migrants are expected to land in Australia in 2022/23 and 315,000 in 2023/24.

Thanks to the upcoming population growth, Deloitte economists are expecting retail turnover to lift from a 0.7 per cent decline across the 2023 calendar year to 1.3 per cent growth in 2024.

The return to real wage growth sometime in 2024 should also support a turnaround in spending.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has bought into the debate about the influence of corporate profits and labour costs on inflation across advanced economies.

The OECD found both unit profits and unit labour costs were contributing to inflation in a manner not seen since the 1970s, but inflation was much higher back then due to stronger increases in unit labour costs.

The research also found most of the higher unit profits stemmed from the mining and utilities sectors, including in commodity-exporting economies such as Australia.

The Australia Institute, which produced research earlier in the year that suggested corporate profits were contributing far more to inflation than wages in Australia, said the OECD's report was consistent with its findings.

The institute's Centre for Future Work director Jim Stanford said corporate profits had reached their highest share of GDP in Australia last year.

"Companies in Australia and many other industrial countries have taken advantage of the disruptions, shortages, and desperation of the pandemic to push up profit margins far beyond normal levels," Dr Stanford said.

He also said the Reserve Bank was blind to the role of corporate profits in its fight against inflation.

"The RBA continues to ignore the role of profits in driving prices, while doubling down on its determination to suppress wage growth," Dr Stanford said.

© AAP 2023

Petrol prices are set to surge above $2 a litre this long weekend as new details emerge about what is really driving inflation.

Motorists have been urged to sniff around for bargains before the King's Birthday break, with analysis uncovering as much as 45 cents difference between the cheapest and most expensive fuel.

Capital city drivers are paying $1.91 a litre, on average, with prices already breaking $2 in many pockets of Sydney.

Compare the Market energy expert Chris Ford said the city was already working through the upswing of its fuel cycle, with the average price $1.95 a litre.

The growth phase of Melbourne's cycle is also under way but Mr Ford said it was still possible to secure a low price.

"However, we don't expect these prices to stick around, with the city-wide average for Unleaded 91 currently at $1.98," he said.

Households are already feeling the squeeze without the unwelcome surge in fuel prices, with fresh evidence corporate profits are contributing significantly to higher consumer prices.

Think tank The Australia Institute and unions have been arguing companies have been charging more than their growing input costs and pushing up inflation and this was doing more to drive up prices than expanding worker pay packets.

The Reserve Bank and Treasury have cast doubt on this suggestion, with both arguing outside the mining sector, corporate profits bear little responsibility for Australia's inflation problem.

A deep dive into the issue by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development found profits were doing more to push up inflation than wages in Australia, especially when inflation first started rocketing last year.

The research by the major international economic body noted Australia's labour costs have recently lifted and are now contributing a much larger share to the overall inflation picture but still not quite as much as corporate profits.

The analysis of several major economies found profits and labour costs were contributing to inflation in a manner not seen since the 1970s.

But inflation was much higher five decades ago because of much stronger wage pressures.

Most of the higher profits stemmed from the mining and utilities sectors, the OECD researchers noted, including in commodity-exporting economies such as Australia.

The Australia Institute director Jim Stanford said companies in Australia and overseas were taking advantage of the disruptions and shortages during the pandemic to push up profit margins beyond normal levels.

Dr Stanford said the Reserve Bank was blind to the role of corporate profits in driving inflation.

"The RBA continues to ignore the role of profits in driving prices, while doubling down on its determination to suppress wage growth," he said.

Australia's central bank, which opted for another interest rate hike this week, has flagged high unit labour costs as a risk to its plan to return inflation to target.

But Governor Philip Lowe maintains he is more worried about sluggish productivity growth than big increases to nominal wages.

The aggressive policy tightening is clearly starting to weigh on the economy, with Deloitte Access Economics partner David Rumbens warning of a "consumer recession" later this year.

Australia is already experiencing a retail recession - two quarters in a row of declining spending in inflation-controlled terms - and Mr Rumbens says the nation could soon have a similar pullback in services as well as goods.

Also on Thursday, official data showed Australia's trade surplus dipping to $11.1 billion in April from $14.8b in March.

© AAP 2023

Australia has ushered in a "retail recession" and recorded its second quarter in a row of declining spending in inflation-controlled terms.

Real retail turnover has recorded a 0.6 per cent fall in the March 2023 quarter, hot on the heels of a 0.3 per cent fall in the December quarter.

Deloitte Access Economics has been warning of a looming "retail recession" - marked by two consecutive quarters of real retail turnover decline - for several months.

In the latest edition of the group's retail forecast report, Deloitte Access Economics partner David Rumbens warned of a broader "consumer recession" - which would include a pullback in services as well as goods - at some point this year.

"High inflation and rising interest rates have eroded the purchasing power of consumers and, in response, consumer sentiment is now at historically pessimistic levels," he said.

Mr Rumbens said it was undeniably a grim time for retailers but there were some silver linings on the horizon, including the expected influx of migrants.

About 400,000 migrants are expected to land in Australia in 2022/23 and 315,000 in 2023/24.

Thanks to the upcoming population growth, Deloitte economists are expecting retail turnover to lift from a 0.7 per cent decline across the 2023 calendar year to 1.3 per cent growth in 2024.

The return to real wage growth sometime in 2024 should also support a turnaround in spending.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has bought into the debate about the influence of corporate profits and labour costs on inflation across advanced economies.

The OECD found both unit profits and unit labour costs were contributing to inflation in a manner last seen since the 1970s, but inflation was much higher back then due to stronger increases in unit labour costs.

The research also found most of the higher unit profits stemmed from the mining and utilities sectors, including in commodity-exporting economies such as Australia.

The Australia Institute, which produced research earlier in the year that suggested corporate profits were contributing far more to inflation than wages in Australia, said the OECD's report was consistent with its findings.

Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work director Jim Stanford said corporate profits had reached their highest share of GDP in Australia last year.

"Companies in Australia and many other industrial countries have taken advantage of the disruptions, shortages, and desperation of the pandemic to push up profit margins far beyond normal levels," Dr Stanford said.

He also said the Reserve Bank was blind to the role of corporate profits in its fight against inflation.

"The RBA continues to ignore the role of profits in driving prices, while doubling down on its determination to suppress wage growth," Dr Stanford said.

© AAP 2023