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The weather bureau has again held off on an El Nino declaration, leaving Australia on alert for the prospect of hotter, drier conditions.
The Bureau of Meteorology's latest climate driver update continues to say El Nino is "likely" to develop in spring.
El Nino events typically deliver drier conditions for much of the country, but particularly eastern Australia, as well as above average temperatures.
They occur when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become substantially warmer than average.
That causes a shift in atmospheric circulation, altering wind patterns that influence the kind of weather Australia gets.
Other agencies, including the World Meteorological Organisation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the US, declared an El Nino event was under way months ago.
But Australia's bureau works to a different set of thresholds that it says are yet to be met.
It's waiting for evidence that trade winds have continued to weaken, as well as changes in the Southern Oscillation Index, which is calculated using the pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.
Cloud cover is another factor.
"When we look at declaring an established El Nino, we look at both the ocean state, and the atmospheric state," senior climatologist Zhi-Weng Chua tells AAP.
"The ocean state is looking like it's satisfying what we'd expect during an El Nino, but the atmosphere hasn't quite responded as strongly as we'd expect ... but we are seeing signs that it's getting close."
The bureau's latest advice also suggests the prospect of another driver of dry weather in Australia - a positive Indian Ocean Dipole - is firming.
In late-August a positive IOD for spring was considered likely, but that's now shifted to very likely.
Mr Chua says if that emerges, it typically means less rainfall for central and southern Australia.
The prospect of hotter, drier weather has authorities concerned given the nation is emerging from three years of wet La Nina conditions that caused flooding, and fuelled heavy vegetation growth.
Once all that growth dries out, the nation will be burdened with heavy fuel loads for bushfires.
There have already been major bushfires in the Northern Territory, and significant early-season fire activity in Queensland and Victoria.
The next update is due in a week.
© AAP 2023
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Australian businesses are still shaking off higher interest rates, price pressures and increasingly cautious consumers.
Conditions for running a business have been trending well above average despite a slowing economy, according to NAB's monthly surveys.
The August report showed business conditions picking up two points, to 13 index points, thanks to improvements in all three components - trading conditions, profitability and employment.
The index also revealed a boost in indicators that point to future performance, such as forward orders and capacity utilisation.
Business confidence, another forward-looking measure, also improved two index points, although some industries were feeling more optimistic than others.
The business community may be reasonably upbeat, but consumers remain troubled.
The Reserve Bank's decision to keep interest rates on hold for three months in a row has not been enough to coax consumers out of their cautious state, according to the monthly index assembled by Westpac and the Melbourne Institute.
The consumer sentiment index for September sank a little to 79.5 index points, marking the longest stint below the 100 neutral mark since the recession of the early 1990s.
A consumer confidence weekly index collated by ANZ and Roy Morgan also came in lower, despite the September cash rate call and a resilient growth report.
CommSec economist Craig James said the disconnect remained clear between consumer confidence, and business confidence and conditions.
"Business conditions are above 'normal' levels basically because the job market remains strong and migration continues to lift," he explained.
"So spending has continued - albeit at a more cautious pace."
Mr James said Australian firms were "muddling through nicely" but lacklustre forward orders and confidence levels were reasons for caution.
"Much will depend on the lagged impact of rate hikes on consumer spending, the Chinese economy recovery and fiscal policy initiatives from the Albanese government to spur continued spending on capital and equipment," he said.
The business survey also included prices data, which showed labour cost growth easing to 3.2 per cent in quarterly equivalent terms after a spike in July.
NAB chief economist Alan Oster said the surge in labour costs in July had likely been influenced by minimum and award wage increases that kicked in at the start of that month.
Despite the moderation, labour costs were still growing faster than the 2.4 per cent quarterly print in June.
"On the other hand, purchase cost growth remains elevated despite the improvement in supply chains, possibly reflecting energy cost pressures," Mr Oster said.
Purchase cost growth held steady at 2.9 per cent quarterly growth, with selling price growth softening to 1.7 per cent.
Despite the slowdown, it was still well above the one per cent low in June.
The bank's economists expect inflation to stay elevated throughout the September quarter.
© AAP 2023
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Australian pop superstar Kylie Minogue says it is "not cool to be ageist" anymore.
Minogue, 55, has enjoyed a 35-year career but has not had to deal with prejudice about her age as much as others.
Earlier this year Madonna said she has been "caught in the glare of ageism and misogyny" following criticism over her appearance at the Grammy Awards.
Minogue, who has lately found viral success on TikTok with her single Padam Padam, said she has been pleased to see people abandoning labels.
She told Radio Times: "There was some of that with Padam, where it surprised people and went on 'youth-orientated' radio. But I think we're in a time where it's not cool to be ageist. People are over it."
"What's really interesting is that it's the younger people saying, 'We love the song.' The current thinking, which is amazing and a breath of fresh air, is that labels are dropping," Minogue said.
"You can like what you like, be what you want to be. That's helpful for me right now.
"Another thing is, I've had people say to me, throughout the years, 'You'll always just be you.'
"They don't really see my age, which is kind of funny, because I started so young, and if there was any detrimental aspect to that it was, 'You're so young, what do you know, how can you be credible?'
"At different points in my career, whatever age I've been, there's been something to navigate.
"I spoke about it on my album Golden, saying, 'We're not young, we're not old, we're golden, you can only be who you are at that point in time.'
"I have friends for whom, on their phone, I'm just called Sparkle. I don't quite know how I've managed it, but I don't think I've had to deal with it as much as some other people."
Minogue has been pleasantly surprised by the success of Padam Padam in the US, which comes ahead of her Las Vegas residency later this year, saying: "It feels like a concerted effort.
"I've been spending a lot of time, much more than in recent years, being in the States and Padam just keeps Padaming, really.
"I'm trying to keep up. It's very exciting. I would say, 'Who would have thought?' but I don't think that's the best attitude. It's more, 'Here we are and why not?' Give it a go."
Minogue's new album Tension is released on September 22.
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Consumer optimism has retreated again after staging a recovery over the past few weeks.
The Reserve Bank's decision to keep interest rates on hold was not enough to coax consumers out of their cautious state, with confidence levels falling 1.1 points last week.
The weekly index collated by ANZ and Roy Morgan came in at 77.6 points, still well below the 111.1 monthly average since 1990.
ANZ economist Madeline Dunk said the gauge had been stuck below 80 points for six consecutive months, the longest stint on record.
"This is despite the RBA keeping the cash rate on hold at its September meeting, and the June quarter GDP data suggesting that Australia is on track for a soft landing," she said.
The sub-indices were mixed, with the future of the economy worrying respondents more than their own short- and long-term financial situations.
While the decision to keep interest rates on hold for the third consecutive month wasn't enough to push up the overall score, Ms Dunk said confidence among those with a mortgage lifted to its highest level in five months.
Predictions from the home building industry suggest construction will be constrained, keeping upward pressure on rents and house prices.
Fresh forecasts from Master Builders Australia have new starts hovering below its 200,000 dwelling yardstick used to ensure enough homes are being built to keep up with population growth for the next two years.
In the 2023/24 financial year, the industry is set to hit a low of 170,087 new starts.
Home building is expected to recover throughout 2024/25, but is not expected to crack the 200,000 threshold until 2025/26.
By 2027/28, home building is expected to hit a peak of 241,017 new starts.
A string of interest rate hikes and a shortage of workers and materials have been keeping a lid on new home building.
But the end of the interest rate hiking cycle will help underpin the recovery, especially for higher-density developments that have a lower risk appetite.
Recovery in home values would also likely attract more individuals and investors into the market, after they sank over much of last year.
Bottlenecks holding up projects, namely labour and materials shortages, are also expected to clear and support a recovery in the coming years.
And while home building tapers off, a wave of infrastructure projects is anticipated to keep the construction industry busy.
A healthy pipeline of transport and other major projects is tipped to keep the total value of building and construction activity growing over the next three years.
Total activity is expected to peak at $246.2 billion in 2026/27.
© AAP 2023
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