The Reserve Bank is tipped to hike interest rates for the 10th time in succession and inflict further pain on already-stretched Australian households.

The central bank will make a decision on lifting the cash rate on Tuesday after a series of rises that began in May 2022 in an attempt to rein in elevated inflation, which probably peaked in the December quarter at an annual rate of 7.8 per cent.

For mortgage holders, another 25 basis point rate hike will stretch household finances even further.

Analysis from comparison site Canstar shows another cash rate hike will add $1051 to monthly repayments (compared to April 2022 levels) on the average $500,000 loan with 30 years remaining on the term.

With inflation still well above the RBA's two to three per cent target band, in recent communications the central bank has adopted a firmer stance on inflation and at the February decision indicated "further increases in interest rates" would still be needed.

The Australian National University RBA shadow board has assigned an 81 per cent probability to another rate hike on Tuesday and a 19 per cent chance the bank will hold.

"There are growing signs past interest rate increases are working their way through the economy, which are for example reflected in a weakening consumer outlook, but current economic conditions remain relatively benign," the shadow board noted.

They pointed to the weaker-than-expected December quarter wage data and increasing unemployment rate as signs of worsening conditions for consumers.

But indicators of business performance and sentiment have been less conclusive.

"Businesses are doing alright on the back of relatively strong consumer spending, but the outlook for the future looks less rosy, which presumably reflects the impact of inflation on household budgets as well as tighter monetary policy," they said.

The shadow board said the global outlook remained unchanged, with the war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions still the key risks.

Government Services Minister Bill Shorten said the likely rate hike would be difficult for many mortgage holders.

"It's going to be incredibly tough for families with mortgages. Quite frankly, I don't know how a lot of them are doing it at the moment," he told Sky News on Tuesday

"I just want this cycle of pain to come to an end as soon as possible because at a certain point it's almost counterproductive."

Mr Shorten said while it was important to tame inflation levels, at some point the rate rises had to stop.

After the March decision, most expect the RBA to keep hiking, with Commonwealth Bank predicting one more lift to the cash rate before pausing.

Westpac, NAB and ANZ economists are tipping two more hikes after the March decision to take the cash rate to 4.1 per cent.

© AAP 2023

Concerns have been raised about Chinese propaganda spreading through Pacific island nations with little oversight in order to stir up unease around Australia's security alliances.

A new report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute says Beijing is trying to stir up a negative perception of the trilateral AUKUS alliance between Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom.

The report said while China also tried to drum up support for its own security arrangements in the region, it fell short on both occasions.

"The Chinese Communist Party is conducting coordinated information operations in Pacific island countries," the report says.

"Those operations are designed to influence political elites, public discourse and political sentiment regarding existing partnerships with Western democracies."

The report says Beijing is exploiting current affairs, like the signing of the AUKUS pact and Pacific Islands Forum meetings.

"The Chinese Communist Party wants to create a Pacific region that ... reflexively defers to China as a global power when Pacific island countries make economic, diplomatic and security decisions," it says.

"The CCP also wants to foster global acceptance of norms that favour its authoritarian system and actions at the expense of current democratic norms and partnerships."

The federal government is set to announce the pathway to acquiring nuclear submarines through the AUKUS alliance in mid-March.

Defence Minister Richard Marles has echoed the language used by his US and UK counterparts that the new submarines would be "a genuine collaboration between all three countries".

Western partners are being urged to work more closely with media outlets and security organisations in the Pacific to counter disinformation coming out of Beijing.

"Doing so will debunk some of the CCP's narratives regarding Western support and legitimacy in the region," the report says.

It also recommends engaging more closely with the region on countering malign efforts and foreign interference online as well as encouraging Pacific nations to develop a media bargaining code similar to Australia's so media outlets can benefit from independent revenue.

© AAP 2023

Sydney is sweltering through its hottest day in two years with temperatures soaring to 38C in the city as an autumn heatwave bears down on NSW.

Fire authorities are bracing for three days of sizzling heat with an extreme fire danger warning issued for numerous regions, with no reprieve in the extreme temperatures until Thursday.

Total fire bans are in force and a widespread heatwave warning has been issued, with some areas expected to exceed 40C.

Extremely hot and dry conditions are predicted on Monday for most of the NSW coast and the central west, with parts of the state tipped to experience severe heat until Wednesday.

The Department of Education has closed 34 schools in areas with an elevated bushfire risk across the Central Ranges, where extreme fire danger ratings have been declared.

The temperature in Sydney will soar to 38C on Monday, while the Bureau of Meteorology has forecast extreme fire danger for the Greater Hunter, Central Ranges and Lower Central West Plains.

Those areas can expect hot and dry conditions with fresh and gusty northwesterly winds.

There is also a severe weather warning for damaging winds for parts of the South Coast, Southern Tablelands, Snowy Mountains, Canberra and South West Slopes Forecast Districts.

Peak gusts of 90 to 100km/h are possible in areas including Braidwood, Jindabyne, Perisher Valley, Charlotte Pass, Thredbo and Adaminaby.

The NSW Rural Fire Service says the extreme fire danger stretches across much of the state.

A total fire ban has been declared for the Greater Hunter, Northern Slopes, North Western, Upper and Lower Central West Plains, Central Ranges and Southern Ranges.

An emergency warning is in place for an uncontrolled fire burning in the vicinity of Pyramul Creek, southwest of Mudgee, in the Central West, that's spreading towards Tambaroora.

"Crews are working with the assistance of waterbombing aircraft and heavy plant machinery to contain the fire, which is burning in rugged and largely inaccessible terrain," the RFS said.

An 80 hectare grass fire is also burning in the Burrendong area, 15km southeast of Wellington and out of control.

NSW Police State Emergency Operations Controller, Deputy Commissioner Emergency Management Peter Thurtell is urging people to refrain from taking unnecessary risks.

"During extremely hot weather, we often see an increase in tragic incidents including drownings, falls from windows or balconies, and kids, pets or vulnerable people suffering distress or injury from being left in a hot car," he said in a statement.

Nearly 30 people drowned in NSW waterways during summer and emergency services are pleading for people to think before they swim.

"At the beach, always swim between the flags and listen to the directions and advice of surf lifesavers - please do not take a risk and swim at an unpatrolled area," Mr Thurtell said.

Of the nation's capital cities only Darwin is experiencing the same autumn swelter with 30 degrees, while Melbourne is a mild 20, Brisbane 29, Perth 21, Adelaide 17, Hobart 19 and Canberra is 25.

© AAP 2023

Sydney has sweltered through its hottest day in two years, as temperatures topped 40C in some parts and sent thousands streaming for the beaches.

A reprieve from high temperatures is not expected until Thursday, as fire authorities brace for days of scorching heat and warn of a high fire danger risk for much of the state.

The fire risk became reality for communities in the state's central west, with fires burning at a number of locations.

A blaze burned through 450 hectares and sparked an emergency warning for Toongi, south of Dubbo.

A similar call to shelter in place was issued for Tambaroora, south of Mudgee, as firefighters and aircraft worked to contain a 600ha blaze on Monday.

"Crews are working with the assistance of water-bombing aircraft and heavy plant machinery to contain the fire, which is burning in rugged and largely inaccessible terrain," the RFS said.

An uncontrolled 400ha grass fire was also burning in the Burrendong area, 15km southeast of Wellington.

The extremely hot and dry conditions blasted the mercury past Sydney's summer high of 30.6C, hitting 37.9C at 4.44pm.

It was also the hottest day since Australia Day 2021 to the west of the city at Penrith and Badgerys Creek where temperatures climbed past 40C.

While the temperature remained above 35C at 7pm in some parts, it was expected to ease overnight to about 21C before spiking again on Tuesday.

"It is not unusual to experience heatwaves during early autumn as the weather transitions from the warmer months of summer to the cold of winter," the Bureau of Meteorology said.

"The bureau's long-range forecast for autumn indicates it is likely to be drier and warmer than usual for much of Australia."

Meanwhile, thunderstorms - possibly severe, with damaging winds - may impact north-east NSW on Tuesday and Wednesday.

NSW Police deputy commissioner Peter Thurtell urged people to refrain from taking unnecessary risks in the extreme conditions.

"During extremely hot weather, we often see an increase in tragic incidents including drownings, falls from windows or balconies, and kids, pets or vulnerable people suffering distress or injury from being left in a hot car," he said.

Nearly 30 people drowned in NSW waterways during summer and emergency services are pleading for people to think before they swim.

"At the beach, always swim between the flags and listen to the directions and advice of surf lifesavers - please do not take a risk and swim at an unpatrolled area," Mr Thurtell said.

Elsewhere among the nation's capital cities, Brisbane and Perth are forecast to reach a maximum of 33C, while Darwin should approach 34C.

Milder conditions are expected in Canberra (25C) and Melbourne (22C), while Adelaide and Hobart are forecast to be cooler at 21C and 19C respectively.

© AAP 2023