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After two years of heavy rain and record floods across eastern states, La Nina is finally over but authorities warn more extreme weather could be on the way in the form of a drought.
The Bureau of Meteorology issued an El Nino watch on Tuesday, after long-range forecasts revealed a 50 per cent chance of the warmer, drier weather pattern occurring this year.
More neutral weather is expected throughout autumn and winter, while hotter conditions could occur by summer, the Bureau of Meteorology's Andrew Watkins said.
"Long-range forecasts show there's an increased chance of below average rainfall for most of Australia during autumn 2023," Dr Watkins said.
"But the northern wet season, including the tropical cyclone season, for northern Australia continues during March and April, so there remains the chance of tropical weather systems bringing heavy rain at times to the north."
Authorities said the possibility of El Nino means an increased risk for bushfires.
There have been 27 El Nino events since 1900, and about 18 of those were affected by widespread winter-spring drought.
La Nina refers to the cool and often rainy phase of the ocean-atmosphere phenomenon meteorologists call the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while El Nino is the warm, dry phase.
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Spirit of Tasmania ferry operator TT-Line and former Australian polo captain Andrew Williams have been fined a combined $90,000 over the deaths of 16 horses.
The polo ponies were discovered dead in their converted refrigeration transport trailer following an overnight Bass Strait crossing from Tasmania to Victoria in January 2018.
TT-Line was found guilty in October of 29 animal welfare law breaches, while Williams pleaded guilty in July to 17 counts of breaching the animal welfare act.
During sentencing in Burnie Magistrates Court on Tuesday, TT-Line was fined $75,000 and Williams $15,000.
Magistrate Leanne Topfer said although there was no intent on the part of TT-Line, the company did nothing to check whether the horses were correctly individually stalled when they "squarely" had an obligation to.
"(This) is not a case of deliberate cruelty ... but society's attitudes have changed in recent times," she said.
She said Williams, who has been working with horses for three decades, failed in his duty to the animals.
Ms Topfer previously ruled the transport unit, which was stationary for 10 hours on a warm evening and carrying 18 horses, was clearly inadequately ventilated.
There were too many horses in the unit and the 16 who died were exposed to the risk of acute heat stress and asphyxiation, and suffered respiratory failure.
They were incorrectly "double stalled" while the two who survived were not.
Ms Topfer said TT-Line relied solely on a declaration by Williams, who was the driver of the horse transport, that the trailer complied with regulations.
Ms Topfer opted to record convictions against both parties, despite noting Williams' remorse and the abuse he'd received on social media following the incident.
TT-Line has lodged an appeal against the ruling in the Supreme Court of Tasmania, while Williams has ongoing separate civil legal action against TT-Line in the Supreme Court of Victoria.
Williams was unable to check on the horses, which were returning from a polo tournament in Tasmania, during the Bass Strait sailing as per TT-Line rules.
He had used the same truck and trailer eight times in the two years prior without difficulties.
Ms Topfer said Williams was devastated by the deaths and had sought help for his mental health.
His lawyers argued a recorded conviction would make it difficult for him to return as a polo player or coach.
TT-Line lawyers also argued a conviction should not be recorded because it would impact their reputation.
Ms Topfer said TT-Line, which is owned by the Tasmanian government, must have spent a "significant amount" defending the charges, including on one application that was "devoid of merit".
She said the fine was not a case where an individual was out of pocket.
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Senior defence officials concede the increased assistance of ADF personnel during natural disasters may be impacting recruitment and retention.
Air Vice Marshal Stephen Chappell has told a parliamentary inquiry into the country's disaster resilience ADF responses to events like bushfires and floods are becoming unsustainable due to their increasing frequency.
As well as taking time away from primary ADF duties, Air Vice Marshal Chappell said it was affecting broader defence numbers.
"Ultimately, our commitment and our response over the last three or four years is at an unsustainable level and that is a contributing factor to our ability to retain and also recruit to the ADF," he told the inquiry.
"We really see pressure on the workforce being a key part of our response to disasters."
Since 2019, more than 35,000 ADF personnel have been called out to national disasters, more than half of the force's 62,000 members.
While there have been suggestions reservists respond to disasters, Air Vice Marshal Chappell said that also posed problems.
"They often are already fully committed in their civilian roles to whatever the disaster is .... therefore the burden falls upon the permanent workforce, particularly in some key niche areas," he said.
The defence official said talks were ongoing with the Department of Home Affairs on how the ADF could better assist disaster relief.
National Emergency Management Agency director-general Joe Buffone said recent Northern Territory floods had reinforced the need to remove the strain from the ADF.
"What we're seeing is more frequent, more intense disasters, (which) sees the ADF deployed more frequently for longer periods. They are one of our most direct physical responses which sits outside of the financial responses we provide," he told the inquiry.
"One of the key challenges is that the current model, we need to look at whether that is sustainable and how we actually supplement those arrangements."
A defence submission to the committee detailed how its commitment had created workforce pressures on its permanent and reserve capacity.
It says the ADF has also had to reprioritise its workforce to meet government directions during natural disasters which reduces its capacity to train, maintain and sustain workforce levels for defence purposes.
"The ADF will remain a critical part of our disaster response architecture but I think it's important that we set that up and build capabilities that support states when they reach those thresholds," Mr Buffone said.
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Businesses remain relatively resilient to economic challenges, but conditions are expected to deteriorate as the full force of higher interest rates is felt.
A monthly survey by NAB showed business conditions slipping one point to 17 index points, which is still a "very strong" result compared with historical averages.
But confidence in the Australian business community did sink below zero in the February report, falling 10 points to minus-four points.
The confidence indicator lifted into positive territory in January.
Conditions remained elevated across industries and states, with trading conditions and employment holding steady at 27 and 12 index points respectively, while profitability dropped four points to 14.
Leading indicators eased slightly, with forward orders falling three points to three index points. Capacity utilisation also dipped, but remains elevated at 85.2 per cent.
NAB chief economist Alan Oster said there were mixed signals around prices in the February survey, with labour costs picking back up to 2.8 per cent in quarterly terms from December lows, and purchase-cost growth remaining elevated at 3.1 per cent, despite easing global pressures.
"Prices growth does appear to be easing in retail as global supply issues resolve," Mr Oster said.
"However, our survey shows little evidence of an easing in services prices for consumers, which remains a key focus for the RBA."
He said the survey confirmed the ongoing resilience in the economy, "though we continue to expect a more material slowdown in demand later in the year when the full effect of rate rises has passed through".
The NAB business report was flagged by the Reserve Bank last week as one of four key data sources of interest ahead of the April cash rate decision.
The central bank lifted rates again in March, but softened its language in accompanying communications and suggested it was getting closer to pausing its tightening cycle.
JP Morgan economist Jack Stinson said the February business survey did not offer clear justification for a pause in April.
"Clearly any signal is dulled by ongoing financial stability concerns," he said, referring to the failure of multiple regional banks in the United States.
Three regional US lenders have collapsed or closed over the past few days, including the California-based Silicon Valley Bank, which was primarily used by the tech sector.
Mr Stinson said Thursday's labour force report could move the needle on the April cash rate decision.
"We stick with a final 25bp hike in April, acknowledging events of the past few days have tilted risks towards a pause," he said.
Rising interest rates have also been weighing on consumer confidence.
Westpac and Melbourne Institute's monthly index held near record lows in March, remaining unchanged at 78.5.
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said sub-80 readings were rare, especially two in a row.
"Indeed, both the COVID shock and the global financial crisis saw only one month of sentiment at these levels," he said.
ANZ and Roy Morgan's weekly measure of consumer sentiment dropped 2.9 points last week to 77, well below the monthly average of 111.6 over the past three decades.
The weekly barometer of consumer sentiment is now at its lowest point since April 2020.
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