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Labor has declared its historic by-election win a ringing endorsement of the Albanese government, while federal Liberal leader Peter Dutton has promised to rebuild following the shock result for his party.

The ABC's Antony Green called the election for the ALP's Mary Doyle over the Liberals' Roshena Campbell, with the win the first time in a century that a government has won a seat from the opposition in a by-election.

Labor was predicted to take Aston with a swing of more than six per cent, holding 53 per cent of the two-candidate preferred vote to the Liberals' 47 per cent.

Late on Saturday, Labor had secured 41 per cent of the primary vote to the Liberals' 38 per cent and the Greens' 11 per cent.

In her victory speech, Ms Doyle said that even the most "optimistic true believers" had her pitted as the underdog in Aston, which had been in Liberal hands for more than 30 years.

"We were the underdog but boy, have we shown that we have a big bite," she told the party faithful.

"Even after the excellent result we had at the election last year, what we were trying to do hadn't been done for 100 years."

At the Liberals' event, Ms Campbell acknowledged that "tonight was not our night", but vowed that "for me, and our party - the Liberal Party - there is only one thing to do: we will fight on".

Mr Dutton told supporters that while it was a tough night for the party in Victoria, the Liberals would come together and rebuild.

The federal opposition leader said the Liberals had a lot of work ahead and must listen to the message sent by the voters of Aston.

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles hailed the election result as a "huge endorsement" of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Labor's focus on "bread and butter" issues.

Mr Marles said voters had responded to Mr Albanese's "serious and sincere" leadership and a government that was working to ease cost of living pressures.

An early swing towards Labor foreshadowed the Liberals' demise in the mortgage-belt electorate, where both Ms Doyle and Ms Campbell campaigned on cost of living pressures.

The result is a huge hit to the Liberals in a vote that was widely viewed as a test of Mr Dutton's leadership.

As the outcome became clear, federal Liberal MP Keith Wolahan issued a plea to his party to come together.

He also stood by Mr Dutton's leadership, adding: "I saw good and bad leaders in the most trying of circumstances and he has all the qualities of a good leader."

His comments were backed by fellow Victorian and senator Jane Hume, who said she "cannot imagine there would be any mood in the party room for (a change of leader)".

"There is no doubt this is a blow but he is a leader with a solid team behind him," she told the ABC.

Labor's Ms Doyle is a breast cancer survivor and former unionist who failed to take the seat at the last election.

Aston was held by the Liberals on a 2.8 per cent margin after former minister and outgoing member Alan Tudge suffered a large swing against him in 2022 election.

Other candidates for the seat were Angelica Di Camillo (Greens), Owen Miller (Fusion) and Maya Tesa (independent).

© AAP 2023

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Former treasury secretary Ken Henry says Australia is running out of time to avert a looming crisis caused by an ageing population, including a growing tax burden on the working population.

Dr Henry, the architect of a major inquiry into the tax system under the Rudd government, said intergenerational equity was going backward.

Speaking at a tax reform roundtable in Canberra spearheaded by teal independent Allegra Spender, Dr Henry said Australia had to move "very, very, very quickly" to avoid the crisis spelled out in the first Intergenerational Report produced two decades ago.

He said Australia was in a worse position now than it was in 2002 when the report warned future generations could face a heavy tax burden to cover increased spending on health and other services needed by an ageing population.

"We've actually gone backwards," Dr Henry said.

While it wasn't too late to avoid a crisis, he said Australia had to move quickly to enact reform.

Ms Spender said tax reform was one of the biggest neglected challenges facing Australia yet the issue was noticeably absent from the 2022 election.

"Except for both parties to reassure people that they won't really touch it," she told the roundtable.

John Daley, former head of the Grattan Institute and partner at EY Port Jackson Partners, agreed that tax reform was politically challenging because, by definition, tax reform leads to some people paying more tax.

Professor Daley also said most tax reform proposals were politically-attractive to oppose.

"But often, the opposition thinks it's a really good idea, and are often quietly praying that it will happen before they get back into government again and get to live with the proof of the reform," he said.

Given the politically challenging nature of tax reform, he said it was important to focus on changes that were worth the political capital that inevitably has to be spent.

The tax reform discussion comes as the Albanese government prepares for its second budget in May.

Despite the long-term pressures facing the budget, such as defence, aged care and health spending, strong commodity prices have delivered another improvement to the budget's bottom line.

The monthly financial statement released on Friday show it had a deficit of $12.9 billion - $20.5 billion lower than the October budget profile deficit of $33.4 billion.

Since the last budget, the government raked in $13 billion more than expected in tax revenue and shelled out $7.5 billion less in payments.

Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said the government would bank most of the upward revisions to revenue, as it did in the October budget, as well as show spending restraint as necessary.

"We know the near-term boost to revenue from elevated commodity prices won't make up for the longer-term challenges," Senator Gallagher said.

© AAP 2023

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Donald Trump has been indicted by a Manhattan grand jury after a probe into hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels, becoming the first former US president to face criminal charges even as he makes another run for the White House.

The charges from an investigation led by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg come as Trump seeks the Republican nomination to run again in 2024.

The specific charges are not yet known, as the indictment remains under seal. CNN reported Trump faces more than 30 counts related to business fraud.

Trump said he was "completely innocent" and indicated he would not drop out of the race. He accused Bragg, a Democrat, of trying to hurt his chances of winning re-election.

"This is Political Persecution and Election Interference at the highest level in history," he said in a statement on Thursday.

Shortly after, Trump appealed to supporters to provide money for a legal defence. He has raised over $US2 million ($A3 million), according to his campaign, since he incorrectly predicted on March 18 that he would be arrested four days later.

The charges will likely be unsealed by a judge in the coming days. Trump will have to travel to Manhattan for fingerprinting and other processing at that point.

Bragg's office said it had contacted Trump's lawyer to coordinate a surrender, which a court official said would likely occur next Tuesday.

Trump's lawyers Susan Necheles and Joseph Tacopina said they will "vigorously fight" the charges.

The Manhattan investigation is one of several legal challenges facing Trump.

Bragg successfully prosecuted Trump's business last year on tax-fraud charges, leading to a $US1.61 million ($A2.4 million) criminal penalty.

The presiding judge in that case, New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan, is expected to oversee this case as well, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The charges could hurt Trump's presidential comeback attempt, as the mug shot from his arraignment and any visuals from his courtroom appearances could provide fodder for rivals.

Trump could use the case to stoke anger among his core supporters, though other Republican voters might tire of the drama.

Some 44 per cent of Republicans said he should drop out of the race if he is indicted, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week.

Trump's allies and fellow Republicans blasted the indictment as politically motivated, while Democrats said he is not immune from the rule of law.

The White House declined to comment.

Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, has said she received money in exchange for keeping silent about a sexual encounter she had with Trump in 2006.

The former president's personal lawyer Michael Cohen has said he coordinated with Trump on the payments to Daniels and to a second woman, former Playboy model Karen McDougal, who also said she had a sexual relationship with him. Trump has denied having affairs with either woman.

Trump in 2018 initially disputed knowing anything about the payment to Daniels. He later acknowledged reimbursing Cohen for the payment, which he called a "simple private transaction."

No former or sitting US president has ever faced criminal charges.

Aside from this case, Trump faces two criminal investigations by a special counsel appointed by US Attorney General Merrick Garland and another criminal probe by a local prosecutor in Georgia.

Trump has escaped legal peril numerous times. In the White House, he weathered two attempts by Congress to remove him from office, including for the Jan. 6, assault on the US Capitol by his supporters, as well as a years-long probe into his campaign's contacts with Russia in 2016.

In last year's tax-fraud case, Bragg targeted Trump's business but declined to charge Trump himself with financial crimes, prompting two prosecutors who worked on the probe to resign.

Trump leads his early rivals for his party's nomination, holding the support of 44 per cent of Republicans in a March Reuters/Ipsos poll, compared with 30 per cent support for his nearest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has yet to announce his candidacy. President Joe Biden is expected to seek re-election

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Donald Trump, the ex-president and frontrunner to be Republican nominee in 2024, is set to face a mug shot, finger-printing and a court appearance next week after being indicted over a probe into hush money paid to a porn star in a historic US first.

The possible spectacle of Trump's appearance in Manhattan before a judge with media camped outside could further divide the world's most powerful country.

The specific charges against Trump are not yet known, but CNN on Thursday reported Trump faced more than 30 counts related to business fraud.

Trump, 76, said he was "completely innocent" and accused Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, the Democrat who led the investigation, of trying to hurt his electoral chances.

"This is Political Persecution and Election Interference at the highest level in history," Trump said in a statement.

Shortly after, Trump appealed to supporters to provide money for a legal defence.

He has raised more than $US2 million ($A3 million) since March 18, according to his campaign, and called for people to protest.

A small number of supporters rallied at Trump's Mar-a-Lago property in Florida on Thursday, waving flags along the highway, while a critic of the former president held a sign near the New York DA's office reading: "Lock him up and throw away the key".

Authorities bolstered security around the Manhattan courthouse after Trump earlier this month called for nationwide protests, recalling his charged rhetoric before the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol by his supporters.

Neither the White House nor President Joe Biden, a Democrat who is widely expected to seek re-election in a possible rematch against Trump, commented on Thursday.

But the party's top senator, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, called Trump's critics and supporters "to let the process proceed peacefully and according to the law".

The Manhattan investigation is just one of several legal challenges concerning Trump.

Trump also faces a separate criminal probe into whether he unlawfully tried to overturn his 2020 election defeat in Georgia, and two investigations by a special counsel including over his handling of classified documents after leaving office.

The Manhattan charges will likely be unsealed by a judge in the coming days and Trump will have to travel there for fingerprinting and other processing at that point. He is expected to appear before a judge next week.

Trump's lawyers Susan Necheles and Joseph Tacopina said they would "vigorously fight" the charges.

Trump received support from a number of his potential challengers for the Republican nomination on Thursday including Florida Governor Ron Desantis and former vice-president Mike Pence.

"This will only further serve to divide our country," Pence said.

While president between 2017 and 2021, Trump regularly butted heads and used fiery rhetoric with traditional American allies over matters such as trade and defence spending. He has been critical of US support for Ukraine following Russia's invasion.

Trump has escaped legal peril numerous times.

In the White House, he weathered two attempts by Congress to remove him from office, over the US Capitol assault by supporters and probe into his campaign's contacts with Russia in 2016.

The Manhattan District Attorney's office successfully prosecuted Trump's business on tax fraud charges last year, leading to a $US1.61 million penalty.

Legal experts say Bragg is expected to argue Trump falsified business records to cover up another crime, such as violating federal campaign finance law, which makes it a felony.

Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, has said she received money in exchange for silence about a sexual encounter she had with Trump in 2006.

The former president's personal lawyer Michael Cohen has said he co-ordinated with Trump on the payments to Daniels and to a second woman, former Playboy model Karen McDougal, who also said she had a sexual relationship with him.

Trump has denied having affairs with either woman.

Trump in 2018 initially disputed knowing anything about the payment to Daniels. He later acknowledged reimbursing Cohen for the payment, which he called a "simple private transaction".

Cohen pleaded guilty to a campaign finance violation in 2018 and served more than a year in prison.

Cohen said he stood by his testimony and the evidence he provided to prosecutors.

© RAW 2023