Australia has ushered in a "retail recession" and recorded its second quarter in a row of declining spending in inflation-controlled terms.
Real retail turnover has recorded a 0.6 per cent fall in the March 2023 quarter, hot on the heels of a 0.3 per cent fall in the December quarter.
Deloitte Access Economics has been warning of a looming "retail recession" - marked by two consecutive quarters of real retail turnover decline - for several months.
In the latest edition of the group's retail forecast report, Deloitte Access Economics partner David Rumbens warned of a broader "consumer recession" - which would include a pullback in services as well as goods - at some point this year.
"High inflation and rising interest rates have eroded the purchasing power of consumers and, in response, consumer sentiment is now at historically pessimistic levels," he said.
Mr Rumbens said it was undeniably a grim time for retailers but there were some silver linings on the horizon, including the expected influx of migrants.
About 400,000 migrants are expected to land in Australia in 2022/23 and 315,000 in 2023/24.
Thanks to the upcoming population growth, Deloitte economists are expecting retail turnover to lift from a 0.7 per cent decline across the 2023 calendar year to 1.3 per cent growth in 2024.
The return to real wage growth sometime in 2024 should also support a turnaround in spending.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has bought into the debate about the influence of corporate profits and labour costs on inflation across advanced economies.
The OECD found both unit profits and unit labour costs were contributing to inflation in a manner last seen since the 1970s, but inflation was much higher back then due to stronger increases in unit labour costs.
The research also found most of the higher unit profits stemmed from the mining and utilities sectors, including in commodity-exporting economies such as Australia.
The Australia Institute, which produced research earlier in the year that suggested corporate profits were contributing far more to inflation than wages in Australia, said the OECD's report was consistent with its findings.
Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work director Jim Stanford said corporate profits had reached their highest share of GDP in Australia last year.
"Companies in Australia and many other industrial countries have taken advantage of the disruptions, shortages, and desperation of the pandemic to push up profit margins far beyond normal levels," Dr Stanford said.
He also said the Reserve Bank was blind to the role of corporate profits in its fight against inflation.
"The RBA continues to ignore the role of profits in driving prices, while doubling down on its determination to suppress wage growth," Dr Stanford said.
© AAP 2023