Melbourne's controversial curfew will be scrapped, with people able to travel up to 25 kilometres and have a beer outside the pub once 70 per cent of Victorians aged over 16 are fully vaccinated against COVID-19.
But the most substantial changes to the state's restrictions will not be made until 80 per cent of people are immunised, which is forecast to occur about November 5.
Premier Daniel Andrews on Sunday unveiled Victoria's "cautious" roadmap out of lockdown, as the state recorded 507 new cases and another death, bringing the toll from the latest outbreak to 11.
He also announced Greater Geelong, the Surf Coast and Mitchell Shire will enter a seven-day lockdown from 11.59pm on Sunday, putting them under the same restrictions as Melbourne and Ballarat.
According to the roadmap, when 80 per cent of Victorians aged over 16 have received a single vaccine dose, outdoor tennis and golf can return and the 10km travel limit increases to 15km.
Once 70 per cent of Victorians are double vaccinated - forecast for October 26 - Melbourne's 9pm-5am curfew will be lifted and the travel limit will increase again, to 25km.
Pubs, restaurants and cafes will be able to open outdoors, with a limit of 50 fully vaccinated people.
Hairdressing can return for the fully vaccinated with a maximum of five people in a salon.
Outdoor gatherings can increase to a maximum of 10 fully vaccinated people or five unvaccinated, while outdoor pools, community facilities, religious gatherings and sport can return with a cap of 50 vaccinated people.
Year 12 students go back to face-to-face learning on October 6, with a staggered return of other years starting with Prep to Year 2s on October 18.
Once 80 per cent of eligible Victorians are vaccinated, retail, gyms, hairdressing and beauty services can reopen for the fully vaccinated, with strict density limits, and hospitality can return indoors. Childcare can also return.
People will be able to have private gatherings of up to 10 vaccinated people, while at Christmas it is expected that will increase to 30.
"We are opening up, no doubt about that, and there will be no turning back. We have got to normalise this, we have got to pass through and beyond this pandemic," Mr Andrews said.
"If you care about nurses, doctors, ambos, cooks and cleaners, everyone in our health system, if they're important to you, then get vaccinated."
Late last week, about 120,000 doctors, nurses, paramedics and allied health workers urged the state government to prioritise the health system and its workforce over easing restrictions.
Through their unions, the health workers called for "accurate modelling" on expected ambulance demand, hospitalisations, intensive care patients and deaths.
Burnett Institute modelling commissioned by the Victorian government forecasts the state will reach a peak of between 1400 to 2900 daily COVID-19 cases between October 19 and 31, based on current numbers.
This would lead to a peak of between 1200 to 2500 Victorians requiring hospitalisation, with between 260 and 550 requiring an intensive care bed.
The modelling found a significant easing of restrictions once 80 per cent of people are fully vaccinated means an almost two-in-three chance of another peak in mid-December, which would push hospitalisations over 2500.
Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton described the roadmap as a "tightrope" between protecting the health system and looking after the wellbeing of Victorians.
"There is no easy pathway," he said.
As of Saturday, more than 200 Victorians are in hospital with the virus, 56 in intensive care and 40 on ventilators.
© AAP 2021